Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo


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Abstract

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to almost 1.5K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by about 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Niño onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is apparently caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Further exploring the low-cloud trend and understanding how much of it is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.



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Eprint ID
59831
DOI 10.1126/science.adq7280

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Goessling, H. F. , Rackow, T. and Jung, T. (2024): Recent global temperature surge intensified by record-low planetary albedo , Science . doi: 10.1126/science.adq7280


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